Week 6: Agriculture and Food Security

中國人將來能不能吃得飽？ With China’s ever-growing population that has placed strain on the world market for grain, this question, which roughly translates to “In the future, will the Chinese people be able to fill their stomachs?” has become increasingly important. This week, we covered China’s agricultural system, its environmental effects, and China’s future food security, and focused on China’s standards for its equivalent of “organic” and discussed a few different scenarios that modeled different paths for China’s future food situation.

The Chinagro simulation model simulates the economics of agriculture for various scenarios in 2010, 2020, and 2030. There was the baseline scenario, which was formulated based on China’s current market behavior and economics of agriculture. This scenario modeled a sustained growth of service and industry sectors, and a high yield of domestic grain, fruit and vegetables. There would be significant importation of livestock feed and meat, however, making consumption of meat in China very sensitive to any changes in market prices. This model is also characterized by the income disparity between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. The next model, the “business-as-usual” model, is based on the assumption that in the years to come, China’s economy will be depend even more heavily upon, and be driven by consumer demand. Here, China would produce more livestock domestically, and people would correspondingly eat more meat due to lower prices. However, land for growing livestock feed would be reduced, and thus China would depend heavily on the world market for feed. In order to reduce the cost of transport, the livestock would have to be located close to harbors, which is also where the large city centers in China are located. The proximity of livestock to urban centers causes severe health risks to the people who live these areas due to increased transmission of disease between animals and humans. The third model is based on the assumption that China will adopt some practices for sustainable living, and would be willing to trade some economic efficiency for environmental sustainability. There would be specific constraints placed on various risk factors, such as how close livestock is allowed to be to city centers by balancing the health effects with the environmental effects of fuel usage. The bottom line here is that not all regions can be protected from associated risks of proximity to livestock, but that overall, this model is the most sustainable. Hopefully, China will recognize that its current obsession with increasing economic efficiency is taking its toll on the environment, and is not a sustainable form of growth for future generations. Sustainable practices must be adopted.