Week 9: Urbanization and Consumption

Urbanization and Consumption Presentation 

Cities in today’s China are growing rapidly, and half of all new construction in the world occurs there. Between 2003 and 2008 alone, construction expenditures rose from $267 billion to $406 billion (Fernandez 2008). This week, Wumeng and I discussed urbanization in China and its implications for the environment. Here I’ll talk about how China’s construction and household consumption effect its environment and economy. 

Construction and resource consumption. 

Construction is one of the most important sectors driving China's growth. Of all the resources China uses in construction, concrete may have the largest environmental impact. Concrete is very energy intensive to produce and accounts for 3 to 8% of global carbon emissions. China uses concrete extensively in construction, representing half of global demand. Demand continues to grow, and Fernandez et al. estimate that China will have to import 30% of it concrete to keep pace. Because of concrete alone, construction represents a large contribution to climate change. In addition, many of China’s new buildings do not meet energy efficiency standards and are wasteful in their electricity use. 

In this discussion, Professor Karp raised the idea of the Kuznets Curve, a model that describes the relationship between income per capita and investment in environmental protection. China is clearly in the heat of development, and its environmental impact from resource consumption will continue to rise for some time. According to Fernandez et al., cities tend to transition from resource-heavy consumption to electricity-heavy consumption, indicating that China’s demand for resources and energy will continue to rise for years to come. With climate change gaining momentum, it would be wise for China to consider how it can make the construction process and  all new buildings more energy efficient. However, construction is happening so fast that its not clear how much control the Chinese government has over this process.

A Chinese consumer economy? After doing some research and speaking with Wumeng, I have a much better understanding of China’s economic position and why we’re pressuring China to consume more. China’s economic growth is heavily fueled by its exports and construction industry, and its undervalued currency makes these goods artificially cheap. This lowers the purchasing power of Chinese citizens, and has created a large economic imbalance within China.  It also has augmented the trade deficit with the US, EU, and other nations. This economic strategy has allowed China to grow at unprecedented rates of ~10% per year and has effectively subsidized its internal construction and urban growth. As a result there has been widespread speculation in construction, in some cases leading to unpopulated ghost cities. 

China and its foreign partners recognize that it is time for China to shift away from this model and that increased domestic consumption is a necessary step to rebalancing the economy. However, higher consumption has obvious implications for China’s environmental impact, which is already increasing due to higher household consumption. As China’s citizens get richer, how much will they consume? Will household consumption reach US levels? Given that China’s citizens consume so little on average compared to Americans, its unlikely that individuals will consume as much as we do in the foreseeable future. However, it is important that China considers the tremendous global environmental impact that its citizens will have if their consumption levels approach ours. 

One important question this class raised is, how much control does China’s government have over its development? The Chinese government holds significant sway over its economy, but as the 2008 financial crisis showed, the world may have less economic control than we think. In a sense it seems that China’s economy has developed a life and momentum of its own, and everyone including the Chinese government is waiting to see where it will end up. This approach has very problematic implications for the environment; as long as China allows development to run unchecked, it will have very limited control over its environmental problems and carbon emissions. 

Citation: Fernandez, John E. "Resource Consumption of New Urban Construction in China". Journal of Industrial Ecology, 2007. 11: 99-114.

Week 7: Water Resources

Water Resources Presentation PDF

According to Chinese environmental activist Ma Jun, water pollution and shortages are the most pressing environmental issues facing China. In week 7, Harmony and I discussed China’s growing water scarcity and what it may look like in the future. After Harmony presented background on China’s water supply, the science of water, and China’s water management actions, I talked about the effect of climate change in China and two case studies of water mismanagement. At the end I discussed the Three Gorges Dam and its environmental implications. 

China, Water, and Climate Change. China is particularly susceptible to climate change for a number of reasons. The country is already prone to floods and droughts and its water resources are unevenly distributed. China also has an incredibly large population with many people living near the coasts, and its demands on agricultural land are greater than ever. On top of this, many parts of China are mismanaging their water resources. 

How has China been affected by climate change so far, and what is its outlook for the future? According to a 2010 article in Nature by Piao et al., temperatures in China have risen 2 ºC since 1960. Compared to the global 0.74 ºC rise during the 20th century, this number is quite high. Like much of the world, the number of droughts and floods are expected to increase, and the article shows that flooding has already risen in the past 50 years. This article also presents data that shows rainfall in the north has decreased since 1960. If this trend continues, water shortages in the north will be exacerbated even further. 

The effects of climate change coupled with poor water management have already had devastating effects in parts of China, including Yunnan and Xinjiang Provinces. Yunnan is currently experiencing a severe drought, with 60% less rainfall than in average years. The proximate reason for this may be the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, but other causes include deforestation to plant rubber trees, poor water management, and climate change. The Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang Province is also experiencing a severe water shortage due to both glacial retreat and heavy agricultural water use. 

In these examples, water mismanagement and climate change combined to create very unstable economic and social situations. Given that China values its stability so highly, will these events shift the way China sees climate change and water use? China’s water is heavily undervalued, and agricultural water waste is widespread. What will it take for China to see climate change as a  security issue, and water as valuable as oil? 

The Three Gorges Dam. Completed in 2006, the Three Gorges Dam is the world’s largest power generation facility. For decades, engineers had imagined a dam spanning the Yangtze river in this location in order to control downstream flooding. The controversial project relocated 1.2 million people and flooded 13 cities and 1200 villages to make room for the 58,000 km² reservoir, larger than the land area of Switzerland. While the project helps to mitigate the region’s devastating floods, it also has a long list of environmental consequences. Some of these impacts include increased landslides, greater seismic activity, harm to Yangtze River organisms, and lowering the river’s capacity to flush pollutants. 

Is water engineering the best way for China to cope with floods and the imbalance in its water resources? Is this an effective way to cope with increased floods and droughts due to climate change? In the case of Yunnan, their over-reliance on dams contributed to water shortages and drought. The Three Gorges Dam shows China’s confidence in its ability to engineer water, but it must be careful to consider the long-term impacts on its precious water supply. 

Week 4: China's International Relations and Environmental Partnerships

Week 4 Presentation

This week's topic - China's international relations - is an important one for understanding the context of China's development and environmental impact. Globalization and international trade have been driving forces in China's modernization, and China's international relationships will continue to shape its economic and environmental policies. Within the broad topic of international relations we focused on environment-relevant subjects such as energy security and environmental diplomacy. We structured the class as follows:

1. China's relationship with the US - overview (Cecilia)
2. China-US environmental cooperation (Cecilia)
3. China's energy security (Cecilia)
4. The concept of "Harmonious World" - Hu Jintao's vision for international diplomacy (Devon)
5. China's relations with Africa and Latin America (Devon)
6. EU-China environmental cooperation (Devon)

As Cecilia mentioned, we also discussed China's relations with Japan and Taiwan in more detail. Here, I'll give an overview of the topics I presented and some notes on our discussion.

I. "Harmonious World" - Hu Jintao's vision for international diplomacy

Since Hu Jintao came to power in 2002, he has used “harmonious world” to describe his vision for China’s international rise and domestic Chinese society. By pushing this as his vision for China’s rise, Hu Jintao integrates traditional philosophy and attempts to quell fears of a “China threat.” This concept is also symbolic of China’s growing presence in international affairs. In our discussion, this term proved to be very useful for understanding China’s strategic approach to international relations and the internal problems it faces. Wumeng pointed out that this concept is often looked upon skeptically in China. For example, when websites are blocked in China, people often refer to this as “harmonizing.” He also brought up that the Chinese publication “qi zenme kan,” which lists the seven most pressing issues facing China today, and does not include environmental problems. This discussion helped us put China’s environmental problems in the context of China’s other challenges, including the disparity between rich and poor, high housing prices, and poor medical care. China’s environmental problems are severe, but the country is also met with social issues that may take priority in day-to-day decision-making.

II. China's relations with Africa and Latin America

Hu Jintao has worked to build relations with African and Latin American countries since he came to power in 2002, and since then trade has grown at an incredible rate. China-Africa trade increased from $10 billion/year in 2000 to $72 billion/year in 2007, and China now has formal diplomatic relations with 49/53 African nations. While China has a number of reasons for pursuing these relationships, they are largely centered around oil. Today, one-third of China's oil comes from Africa, and China has oil and gas exploration deals with Venezuela, Brazil, Ecuador, Peru, Colombia, and Bolivia. In exchange for securing oil partnerships, China has offered billions of dollars in development aid to these trade partners.

These growing partnerships raise some questions. First, is it ethical for China to maintain a position of “non-intervention” and support of human rights violators? China’s support of Sudan is especially problematic, and they received heavy political pressure during the Olympics to end this relationship. However, China is not alone in collaborating with oppressive regimes. In the words of Dartmouth professor of government David Kang, “We support Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia—huge human-rights violators—because we have other strategic interests. China's not unique in cutting deals with bad governments and providing them arms.” This does not justify relationships with despotic governments, but shows that we must keep context in mind when criticizing China’s actions.

Second, are China’s attempts to build relations in Africa and Latin America just a new brand of neocolonialism? Elizabeth C. Economy of the Council of Foreign relations says providing large aid packages in exchange for exploitative trade deals is an established pattern, and China is not unique in building these kind of relationships. In addition, China denies this criticism, stating that their demand for raw materials keeps prices high, which benefits these countries. In addition, they have offered extensive aid packages to many trade partners including billions of dollars to develop roads, railways, and other infrastructure. So far, China has followed through on some large projects and abandoned others. With time we will see how mutually beneficial these relationships are.

III. China-EU-US environmental cooperation

There are a few key similarities and differences in China-US and China-EU partnerships with regards the environment and climate change. Both the US and EU have held high-level economic summits with China, and in recent years both have incorporated climate change and energy into these discussions. However, the EU and China have made much more progress specifically on climate change, launching the EU-China Partnership on Climate Change 2005. The EU has also formed a number of large research partnerships with China regarding clean energy technologies and carbon sequestration.

In contrast, the US and China have made no concrete climate change agreements or public research partnerships, and continue to point fingers at one another at international climate negotiations. The EU is clearly taking the lead with China on climate change, but this significance of this partnership is uncertain. At Copenhagen, the EU was left out of key negotiations, and China appeared to ignore any progress made with Europe on climate. This represented a major blow to these EU-China climate partnerships as China demonstrated its unbending commitment to development.

Week 11: NGOs

This week we talked about NGOs and civil society in China. While Harmony focused on the facts (for instance, she presented a timeline of the development of NGOs in China), I concentrated on the more abstract, theoretical aspects of the topic.

China is still in the process of reforming and opening up, and while civil society, as evidenced by growth in NGOs over time, has grown in size, the semi-authoritarian context of China limits the way in which civil society, specifically NGOs, can grow. As Harmony mentions below, though in the West NGOs are often conceived of as organizations that keep the government in check or protect civilian rights, in China, they are often conceived of as government “helpers” – in order to even exist in China, many NGOs (especially environmental NGOs) spin themselves as working in the interests of the government. Essentially, Chinese NGOs occupy a unique – or as some authors phrase it, an “embedded” – space within China. They pick up where the government is able to acknowledge it left off, but if they overstep the bounds for action implicitly set by government too much, they are in danger of being shut down or otherwise affected/reprimanded. The lines between government and NGOs thus blur somewhat in China: not surprisingly, the country has many Government-Organized Non-Governmental Organizations (GONGOs) operating within its borders. Is this necessarily a “bad” thing? We often think that NGOs entirely free from (the control, but also the help of) government work best, or that grassroots social change is an absolute essential. But are these notions in any way ethnocentric? Is the Western way NGOs are organized the way NGOs and civil society should be organized everywhere? Could/are NGOs in China as they exist now be as effective as NGOs in other, more open parts of the world? We asked these questions and others, and came up with mixed answers.

The issue of NGOs in China has many fascinating details, but something particularly helpful about examining it was that it crosses paths with many of the subjects we studied earlier in the course. Some of the features of Chinese environmental NGOs discussed above emerge partially because of aspects of China/the Chinese government we learned about throughout the semester. For instance, the decentralization but continued power of government in China we studied in the first weeks of class leads to a situation in which a) citizens have an increasing ability to act if they stay within the lines of Party rhetoric, and b) local government does not always follow through on environmental laws or policy laid out by central government. These effects intersect in such a way that groups of citizens are “allowed” to, can criticize local government officials or the job they’re doing without technically criticizing central government, if they’re careful about the way they word their complaints or go about their campaigns for more effective environmental regulation, better conservation, etc.

Week 11: NGOs

Week 11: NGOs

Our final week of formal class addressed the topic of civil society and NGOs and how these might play into potential solutions. We frequently broached the topic for this week throughout the semester when we had discussed some of the current quandaries and were casting about for hope in the future. Viewed through Western eyes, NGOs and civil society organizations often appear to offer a solution to government and corporate tyranny, destruction of common goods, and oppression of human rights. However, despite the many systems that China (and other developing countries) have imported from the West, functions delegated to civil society remain unique in modern China. China is, after all, still tied to historic roots of authoritarian rule through just a few short decades.

In class, we highlighted the growth and development of social organizations in China, the regulations imposed on them and how these regulations are enforced and the functions that common social organizations can fulfill. International NGOs have a slightly different relationship with the Chinese government that is in some ways similar, yet also separate from the domestic NGOs. Taken together, however, both domestic and international NGOs have risen in popularity dramatically in the last few decades. Common ways to quantify NGO growth have been somewhat frustrated by the quasi-legality of many organizations. Although it is possible to register with the state (under the regulation of a body call MoCA, Ministry of Civil Affairs), many organizations choose not to for various reasons. Additionally, membership with NGOs is rarely recorded – given the tumultuous history between NGOs and the Chinese government, many Chinese citizens shy away from official membership (and NGOs may not seek it).

Specifically related to our class, we found that environmentally-focused NGOs are prominent and so are actions from civil society relating to environmental issues. Many long-standing and “famous” NGOs in China focus directly on environmental conservation, education and activism. Other social movements related to specific environmental issues are common. Overall, it is a sector of large overlap.

Unfortunately, the most difficult and uncertain questions relate to the effectiveness of environmentally oriented NGOs. Are they actually improving the situation? Kayla and I went on to address this question further for our final poster presentation and were frustrated by our inability to come up with a concrete answer. At the present moment, we believe that NGOs are starting to be acknowledged and have tangible impacts on the environmental issues that they lobby for, however, it is still too early to declare these positive changes. Yet there is no doubt in my mind that this will definitely be one of the areas of China’s future development to keep an eye on and to better understand.

Week 6: Agriculture and Food Security

中國人將來能不能吃得飽？ With China’s ever-growing population that has placed strain on the world market for grain, this question, which roughly translates to “In the future, will the Chinese people be able to fill their stomachs?” has become increasingly important. This week, we covered China’s agricultural system, its environmental effects, and China’s future food security, and focused on China’s standards for its equivalent of “organic” and discussed a few different scenarios that modeled different paths for China’s future food situation.

The Chinagro simulation model simulates the economics of agriculture for various scenarios in 2010, 2020, and 2030. There was the baseline scenario, which was formulated based on China’s current market behavior and economics of agriculture. This scenario modeled a sustained growth of service and industry sectors, and a high yield of domestic grain, fruit and vegetables. There would be significant importation of livestock feed and meat, however, making consumption of meat in China very sensitive to any changes in market prices. This model is also characterized by the income disparity between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. The next model, the “business-as-usual” model, is based on the assumption that in the years to come, China’s economy will be depend even more heavily upon, and be driven by consumer demand. Here, China would produce more livestock domestically, and people would correspondingly eat more meat due to lower prices. However, land for growing livestock feed would be reduced, and thus China would depend heavily on the world market for feed. In order to reduce the cost of transport, the livestock would have to be located close to harbors, which is also where the large city centers in China are located. The proximity of livestock to urban centers causes severe health risks to the people who live these areas due to increased transmission of disease between animals and humans. The third model is based on the assumption that China will adopt some practices for sustainable living, and would be willing to trade some economic efficiency for environmental sustainability. There would be specific constraints placed on various risk factors, such as how close livestock is allowed to be to city centers by balancing the health effects with the environmental effects of fuel usage. The bottom line here is that not all regions can be protected from associated risks of proximity to livestock, but that overall, this model is the most sustainable. Hopefully, China will recognize that its current obsession with increasing economic efficiency is taking its toll on the environment, and is not a sustainable form of growth for future generations. Sustainable practices must be adopted.

Week 10: Environmental Health

This week we covered environmental health, focusing specifically on common toxins and toxicants in China and their health effects, the basics of epidemiology, air pollution, and the effects of acid rain. The prevalence of diseases such as chronic bronchitis, asthma, and other respiratory disorders amongst Chinese citizen are well-characterized, and have been directly linked to noxious emissions such as PM10. While the current emission standards in China are not as stringent as the standards proposed by the World Health Organization, the greatest contributing factor to chronic respiratory illness in China has been the failure of the Chinese national government to successfully implement and enforce the standards they have mandated. As a result, past and current levels of emissions in many Chinese cities such as Beijing, have been higher than these acceptable standards. The prevalence of chronic respiratory illness among the citizens of Beijing and the corresponding increase in mortalities has lowered the life expectancy in comparison to similarly developed cities such as Shanghai. Although Shanghai, in recent years, has met the Class II PM10 standard for residential and commercial areas and its citizens enjoy the highest life expectancy amongst all provinces of mainland China, residents of this city are still susceptible to respiratory illness. According to World Health Organization, the WHO AQG standards represent the minimum level of PM10 that is correlated with an increased risk of developing respiratory illness with 95% confidence. An increase in 10 µg/m of PM10 from these standards represents a 15% greater chance of developing respiratory illness. China Class II Standards for PM10 are 100 µg/m, 5 times higher than the WHO AQG standard. From this data, it is clear that current emissions standards in China are far from acceptable in terms of protecting citizens from respiratory disease.

Other air pollutants, such as NOx and SO2, contribute directly towards acid rain, whose devastating effects on forests and bodies of water are well-known. This week however, we also studied the lesser known health impacts of acid rain. Acid rain contributes to the buildup of mercury in fish, by favoring the ionic form of mercury in acidic water. Mercury ions can be converted into methylmercury by certain bacteria, and methylmercury is much more lipophilic and able to pass through body membranes than mercury. Acid rain also causes increased leaching of metals, including toxic heavy metals into waterways where people are more likely to be exposed to them. Cadmium in particular is dangerous because it can be taken up by crops, especially dark leafy greens and tobacco, which poses health hazards to the people who consume these goods.

In the face of such devastating environmental consequences, it is difficult to see how this situation can be reversed. However, there is a bright side: many technological changes have occurred that are not reflected in the current data, and motions have been made for China to increase the stringency of their emissions standards. Using a combined technological and policy-based approach, China has the potential to enjoy fresh air, clean water, and blue skies once more.